Rightward Bound

The Four Horseman

One of the greatest difficulties the GOP has had in its ongoing attempt to reach out to the African-American community is a lack of credible candidates. With the exception of J. C. Watts, black Republicans in positions of authority have been scarce in recent years, to say the least. Yet, with party chairman Ken Melmann making outreach to the African-American community a priority and with a marked increase in the number of smaller statewide offices held by black Republicans, this difficulty seems on the verge of being overcome. And as the 2006 election cycle inches toward a reality, prospects look brighter for the GOP where African-American candidate recruitment is concerned. Four candidates in particular seem poised to give the Democrats the headache of their lives: for if the Republicans can dent the African-American percentages currently won by the Democrats, the party may find itself unable to win elections. The fact is, the African-American community is in a position where the Democrats can't win with them and the Republicans can win without them. With Hispanics looking to overtake African-Americans as the largest minority in America within 20 years, African-Americans may have good reason to believe that business as usual is no longer good enough. To drive the point home, the Republicans may draw on the services of four diverse men, whom I like to call the four horsemen of the Democrats' apocalypse: a preacher, a teacher, a football star and a rising star. And best of all, all four have self-identified as conservatives.

The Preacher:
To say that black ministers are not normally associated with Republicans is like claiming that ex-military gun-owners tend not to be Democrats: there are exceptions, but not very many. However, Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton had better move over, because the newest shepherd on the political stage might expose them to be more goat like than they'd prefer. His name is Keith Butler. He has previously served as a city councilman in Detroit, one of the few Republicans to hold such office. Now, Butler has moved out to the suburbs, and moved his ambition more statewide. Michigan's female senator Debby Stabenow is considered one of the weaker incumbents in the senate, with pole numbers hovering at or below the 50 percent mark. She has done little to solidify her position, and it is questionable as to just how strongly African-Americans in Detroit feel about returning her to Washington. Could Butler cut into Stabenow's urban base in Detroit? He has been elected there before, despite his Republican label, and he has a reputation as a charismatic and dynamic personality. He'll have to play things a little smarter than the last GOP so-con to come out of the African-American community and run for senate: Allan Keyes. Then again, Butler is undoubtedly a far different person, and Keyes was handicapped by his late drop into a blue state getting bluer to run against inveterate campaigner Barak Obama. An equally good question is whether the white GOP is ready for Butler to run statewide. Michigan has a reputation for divisiveness on racial issues. Then too, the other announced candidate is Jane Abraham, who, as director of the Susan B. Anthony List (the pro-life Republican answer to Emily's List), has her own social conservative credentials. Abraham's other great strength is also her weakness: the seat was her husband's before it was Stabenow's. Abraham has rightly or wrongly gained a reputation as a lackluster senator and campaigner, and as Jeane Carnihan of Missouri can attest, spousal candidates do not always do very well in their husband's old stomping grounds. Of course, either Abraham or Butler might just as easily set their sites on yet another weak incumbent, Michigan's governor Jennifer Granholm. In any case, the GOP cannot but benefit from a Butler run, unless they treat him shabbily, which I doubt they will. After all, a man like Butler, even if unsuccessful, could be most helpful in the inevitable 2008 campaign for Michigan, whoever the nominee is.

The Teacher:

J. Kenneth Blackwell is not your ordinary politician. I first became aware of him just before the 2004 election, where his name cropped up in conjunction with Ohio's brewing election controversy. He was also mentioned as a possible candidate to replace Ohio's unpopular country-club Republican governor, yet another in the long line of Tafts to rise to prominence in that state. By chance, I stumbled upon a lecture given by Blackwell at the Ashbrooke Center for Public Affairs, and broadcast on the net, on the subject of religion and liberty. Ohio's secretary of state gave off quite a professorial aura, and spoke with zest and intelligence on a subject which he obviously knew well. I couldn't help but get the impression of a distinguished professor of something or other when I heard him speak. He is obviously smart, and from what he said, seemed inclined toward conservatism. Ohio's GOP definitely needs a shot of that right about now. Although the two senators and the governor are all Republicans, both senators have shown an unconscionable degree of wobbliness where presidential nominees are concerned and Taft, as previously mentioned, has been a disastrous tax-and-spend disappointment. Blackwell does not face an open field. Others, including the auditor general, have also announced an interest. However, Blackwell gained a certain amount of name recognition from the Ohio controversy, though without nearly the negative stigma that the name Catherine Harris carries, perhaps unfairly. Expect the Democrats to nominate a tough candidate, unless, of course, Jerry Springer really does make a bid. Few things would please me more than seeing the professorial Blackwell take America's greatest smutmeister back to school.

The Football Star.
Ed Rendell may seem invulnerable from the outside, but matters are perhaps not as they seem. His use of gambling to raise revenues has angered social conservatives, and its success is doubtful. His fiscal record is not really very impressive, and his comments regarding Bin Laden campaigning for Bush (not to mention his disenfranchisement of military voters) was unconscionable. Then too, there is a sense in the state that Rendell views himself as governor of Philadelphia (affectionately known by some of us in the t as Chicago East), not Pennsylvania. Finally, in order to protect vulnerable incumbent Rick Santorum, the PA GOP may think it wise to mount a serious challenge to Rendell, thereby putting the PA Democrats more on the defensive. Yet, whatever their strengths as candidates, it is not state senator Jeff Piccola nor former lieutenant governor Bill Scranton whose name sets the Republican grass-roots buzzing. Rather, it is Pittsburgh Stealer's legend Lynn Swann. Swann, the go-to wide receiver for the Steelers during the most glorious of their glory days, is seriously mulling a run for governor. He's got charisma and stage presence, he's got Washington connections through his work for the President's physical fitness council and the campaign, and he's got a good chance of bringing a lot of crossover votes in Western PA. It is even possible that his work with Big Brothers Big Sisters might just give him more of an edge with inner-city voters in Philli and elsewhere than his Republican rivals. Of course, what Swann does not have is political experience and a long background of policy knowledge. He is a rookie politician, and while this worked for Arnold in the short California recall campaign where the field was crowded and the incumbent far less popular than Rendell, Swann will need to do even better. He must match his sunny disposition, his ability to generate great sound bites and his great name recognition and fund-raising agenda with a positive policy package which people can get behind. So far, he's talked in dribs and drabs about little common sense tweaking of the system. But small ideas won't beat Rendell, a slick pol who has thrived in the machine politics of Philadelphia and whose fund-raising and policy debate skills are formidable. Swann will need to remember how to be coached, and he will need some exceptionally talented campaign and policy staff. Above all, he needs to stop mulling and start deciding to pass or punt. This might be the longest bomb Lynn Swann has ever caught. Then again, football players tend to do well in politics (Jack Kemp, Steve Largent and JC Watts all come to mind). For Swann' a gubernatorial run might be yet another one of the bone-smashing hard-fought scraps on which life and reputation hang which are the football player's forte. In such scraps, Swann usually comes out ahead.

The Rising Star.
"Talk about a rising star," the promo for the "off the record" interview with Maryland's lieutenant governor Michael Steel reads. In describing Steel so, the folks and GOP.COM have definitely hit on something: Steel is probably the best out of these four candidates and that says a great deal. Raised Catholic, Steel actually briefly entered an Augustinian seminary at one point, before giving up the monastic life for a more worldly calling. Briefly the chairman of the GOP, Steel left this post to run for and shockingly win the lieutenant governor's slot with governor Bob Errlich. Already, this made Steel a spokesman for the GOP where African-American outreach is concerned. He spoke briefly at the convention, and apparently electrified the crowd. Even the likely democratic standard-barer, former congressman and NAACP head Quaisi Mfume has compared a race between himself and Michael Steel for the senate seat of the retiring Paul Sarbanes to a clash between "Hank Aaron and Berry Bonds". Maryland is a very blue state, and Steel is not a liberal Republican. In his first race with Errlich, the GOP'S numbers in heavily black areas did not jump greatly. Yet, Steel would have certain advantages. Undoubtedly, marylander and GOP chairman Ken Melmann would help Steel any way he could, both for African-American outreach and personal reasons. Then too, Errlich's administration has made a conscious effort to reach out to Maryland's African-Americans, and has won praise from such unlikely sources as Deaf Jam Records producer Russell Simmons. Finally, Maryland's white voters, while they might be Leary of a white conservative Republican, might just consider Steel more mainstream than the sometimes radical Mfume, who has never credibly been accused of racial moderation. Steel is likeable, obviously electable and could go far as a Republican senator, even a first-termer. As blue as Maryland is, he should not be counted out.

Whether any of these men will run and make it past the primaries is still a question. Whether any of them can win is perhaps unwarranted speculation right now. However, the fact that four credible African-American candidates for statewide office are being discussed, three in swing states and one in a blue state, is quite remarkable. Republicans should not necessarily give these men preference because of their race: to do so would be to bypass their color-blind principles. However, win or lose, run or no, these four men can be articulate spokesman of the conservative Republican message to a community which needs to hear it.

posted by A. J. @ 12:15 AM